Insights

August market activity reflected resilient economic growth, inflation that remained above the Federal Reserve's target, and heightened expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Treasury yields rose across the curve in July, with the 10-year Treasury reaching a year-to-date high and the 30-year yield surpassing 5.20 percent for the first time since 2007.

Treasury yields moved higher at the front end in June, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve may hike rates in 2H2026.

Treasury yields ended May modestly higher on expectations for a higher-for-longer rate environment.

We believe that periods of higher bond market volatility demonstrate the need for proactive tax loss harvesting and tax-loss crossing in bond portfolios throughout the year, rather than waiting until tax-season or year-end.

The U.S. Treasury curve shifted higher across the maturity spectrum with yields rising approximately 40bps in the 2- through 10-year range and 30bps on the long end. The move reflected persistent inflation pressures and a shift in market sentiment regarding the likelihood of a Federal Reserve cut in 2026.

In February, Treasury yields fell across the curve, and the 10-year yield declined 30 basis points, as buyers turned to Treasuries amidst potential signs of the disinflationary power of AI, rising geopolitical tensions and worries about private credit.

Treasury yields rose modestly across the curve during January, with the 2-year and 10-year maturities seeing increases of 5 basis points, as markets adjusted to shifting economic data.