Insights

After widening in the first quarter on heightened geopolitical risk and an oil shock, corporate bond spreads staged a comeback on a ceasefire in Iran, solid U.S. economic data, and a strong first-quarter earnings cycle.

Treasury yields ended May modestly higher on expectations for a higher-for-longer rate environment.

Treasury yields moved modestly higher in April, as markets responded to resilient economic data, elevated inflation readings, and higher energy prices.

The U.S. Treasury curve shifted higher across the maturity spectrum with yields rising approximately 40bps in the 2- through 10-year range and 30bps on the long end. The move reflected persistent inflation pressures and a shift in market sentiment regarding the likelihood of a Federal Reserve cut in 2026.

IG corporates faced a volatile start to 2026, with spreads widening after historically tight levels.

Treasury yields rose modestly across the curve during January, with the 2-year and 10-year maturities seeing increases of 5 basis points, as markets adjusted to shifting economic data.

Economic growth remained robust in the fourth quarter, fueled by strong spending from high-income households and productivity gains linked to artificial intelligence-related investments.

As we enter 2026, we are of the view that the next 12 months may be more about total return and less excess return.