Insights

Treasury yields moved modestly higher in April, as markets responded to resilient economic data, elevated inflation readings, and higher energy prices.

The U.S. Treasury curve shifted higher across the maturity spectrum with yields rising approximately 40bps in the 2- through 10-year range and 30bps on the long end. The move reflected persistent inflation pressures and a shift in market sentiment regarding the likelihood of a Federal Reserve cut in 2026.

IG corporates faced a volatile start to 2026, with spreads widening after historically tight levels.

In February, Treasury yields fell across the curve, and the 10-year yield declined 30 basis points, as buyers turned to Treasuries amidst potential signs of the disinflationary power of AI, rising geopolitical tensions and worries about private credit.

Treasury yields rose modestly across the curve during January, with the 2-year and 10-year maturities seeing increases of 5 basis points, as markets adjusted to shifting economic data.

As we enter 2026, we are of the view that the next 12 months may be more about total return and less excess return.

In October 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by 25bps to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent and announced an end to quantitative tightening in December.

The Treasury yield curve bull flattened in September, with the 10-year yield falling by eight basis points.